Sports betting algorithm: Can you beat the house?

There is nothing more intriguing and more provocatively challenging in betting than to beat the ‘house’, especially as the widespread notion that the ‘house always wins’ has prevailed and proved right for the most part of the global betting activity.

One of the main reasons for this is that typically all sportsbooks, for whom you can see reviews at Allbets, are using a configuration of resources – technological, human, capital and knowledge resources- to develop core capabilities in compiling and setting odds that are quite unbeatable by the average punter.

In fact bookmakers make huge investments in finding the right people, with deep knowledge and understanding of data analytics, and in acquiring advanced, innovative digital technologies so as to be able to develop odds and offerings which ensure their own profit making no matter what.

But could this be also the case for punters? Could punters invest time, effort and resources in developing a model, an algorithm that could beat the house in sports betting?

Many bettors are wondering whether they can actually do that and more specifically they are trying to find out how to create a sports betting algorithm so as to increase their win rates.

What is a sports betting algorithm?

It is a mathematical model that can generate probabilities of events. Simply put, it is a model that can potentially make more accurate predictions of certain events occurring, by computing, statistically processing and analyzing data. So, betting-wise, an algorithm is a series of computations and mathematical formulas that generate probabilities of match outcomes or other match-related events.

In practice, creating a sports betting algorithm would imply that you could enhance your effectiveness in selecting bets that win, since you would be able to choose these bets that are more likely to win. So, it is a tool used for efficient decision making when it comes to placing wagers. It helps punters make more informed decisions and bet on events that have more chances of occurring. And in this way, punters get to increase their profits and beat the house.

How to create a sports betting algorithm?

In order to create a sports betting algorithm, first you need to understand how algorithms work. In short, they are models that take inputs and produce outputs on the basis of tightly defined and predetermined instructions and rules.

A sports betting algorithm will be as good as the input data and the instructions are. Input data can be all data about a match: from teams’ past records to players’ injuries and from penalties to scoring patterns. Everything that is deemed to have an impact on the outcome of a match is a relevant bit of information that can be inserted, processed and analyzed by the sports betting model. 

The more relevant the data is, the more accurate the predictive validity of the output is going to be. So, it is very important to understand that a sports betting algorithm needs to be fed with information that has value. Sources of data can be either free information readily available on the internet or specific paid services that provide huge amounts of data.

The type of sports betting algorithm will, then, depend on what bettors want to get from the sports betting model. There are two different types: betting arbitrage algorithms and value betting algorithms.

Betting arbitrage algorithms analyze odds’ patterns linked to a specific event and follow the changes in odds, which if there is a discrepancy, they can produce profits irrespective of the event’s outcome. These modelx don’t generate predictions for the outcomes of an event, but they aim to capitalize on the odds changes.

Value betting algorithms, on the other hand, make use of past records and data to illustrate the expected value – giving punters in this way the value bets, and also help bettors with their bankroll management, as they indicate how much money to place on a bet.

Value betting algorithms are way more popular in sports betting and they come in handy to punters who have the patience, the willingness, the commitment and the dedication to create sports betting models in order to make profits and combat the ‘house’.

Now, that sports betting algorithms have been explained, all you need to do is make a decision whether it’s worth it or not and if you decide to devote your time, effort and resources then you should follow a seemingly simple – yet very demanding- procedure: choose the sport, develop the objectives of the model, create the algorithm, select the analytical tools, dig into data and build the model.

There is no guarantee for success, but if you are a tech-savvy bettor you can give it a shot!

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